Gameweek Debrief: The Winners, Losers, and Underlying Stats
De Cuyper led Gameweek 1 with 17 points. Underneath the scoreline, the expected-goals numbers tell a different story about who got lucky and who did not.
The headline
De Cuyper was the story of Gameweek 1: 17 points from 1 goal and 1 assist at home to AVL, in 77 minutes. He was owned by 3.5% of managers going into the round.
The other side of the same weekend: Thiago (17.2% owned) returned 0, Rogers (24.3% owned) returned 1, Calvert-Lewin (30.3% owned) returned 1. Points you do not score are as expensive as points you do.
The top scorers
| Player | Team | Pos | Pts | Mins | G | A | xGI | Owned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Cuyper | BHA | DEF | 17 | 77 | 1 | 1 | 1.68 | 3.5% |
| Hinshelwood | BHA | MID | 16 | 63 | 2 | 0 | 1.43 | 1.1% |
| Mendy | HUL | DEF | 15 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 1.7% |
| M.Sangaré | BRE | MID | 14 | 75 | 0 | 2 | 0.38 | 4.9% |
| Ajayi | HUL | DEF | 14 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 1.3% |
Data against reality
Gakpo scored 1 from 0.3 expected goals — 0.7 more than the chances warranted. At the other end, Isak generated 1.09 expected goals and scored 0. That is the kind of return that tends to arrive late rather than never.
One round is one round. These are descriptions of what happened in Gameweek 1, not verdicts on anybody's finishing. Ask again after five.
The transfer blueprint
Buy — De Cuyper (BHA, £4.5m, 3.5% owned). 1.68 expected goal involvements in 77 minutes and still under-owned.
Buy — Hinshelwood (BHA, £6.0m, 1.1% owned). 1.43 expected goal involvements in 63 minutes and still under-owned.
Hold — Haaland (68.9% owned). 2 points reads badly, but 0.76 expected involvements says the process was fine. Selling here is selling the scoreline, not the player.
Sell — James (10.4% owned). 29 minutes. Minutes are the one thing no model can work around.
The captaincy post-mortem
Of the widely-owned options, Guéhi returned 10 and Thiago returned 0. The armband was worth 10 points of swing between the two most obvious picks alone.