Under the Hood: the low-owned players creating chances without the returns

The gap between chances and goals

Expected goal involvements measure the positions a player gets into. Goals and assists measure what came of them. When the first runs well ahead of the second, one of two things is true: the player has been unlucky, or he is not good enough to finish what he creates. Over a long enough run it is almost always the first, which is why the gap is worth buying before it closes rather than after.

Creating without converting

How to read this table

The "waiting on" column is expected involvements minus actual returns. A figure of 1.0 means a player has generated the chances for one more goal or assist than he has produced. It is not a promise that the goal is coming — it is a statement that the chances are being created, which is the part of the process a player controls. Finishing regresses toward the mean over a season; getting into the box does not.

Ownership matters here as much as the gap. A player at 30% ownership whose returns are lagging is a hold, not a buy — you already have him, and so does everybody you are competing with. The same profile at 4% is a genuine edge, because you capture the correction and most of the field does not.

Barry — EVE, £5.5m, 4.9% owned

2.02 expected involvements across 147 minutes, with 1 to show for it. His threat index sits at 99 and creativity at 31, and he has already picked up 2 bonus points.

Igor Jesus — NFO, £5.9m, 3% owned

1.02 expected involvements across 180 minutes, with 0 to show for it. His threat index sits at 69 and creativity at 20.

Rúben — MCI, £5.5m, 1.8% owned

0.8 expected involvements across 180 minutes, with 0 to show for it. His threat index sits at 37 and creativity at 40.

Kluivert — BOU, £6.0m, 1.1% owned

0.77 expected involvements across 154 minutes, with 0 to show for it. His threat index sits at 74 and creativity at 41.

Hill — BOU, £5.5m, 0.9% owned

0.74 expected involvements across 180 minutes, with 0 to show for it. His threat index sits at 4 and creativity at 21.

Where the gap is concentrated

The same analysis by position, because the correction is worth different amounts depending on where a player lines up. An unconverted chance is worth six points to a defender and four to a forward, and defenders carry clean-sheet points on top.

Taking more than they create

The mirror image, and the more dangerous group to own. These players have converted above the rate their chances imply. That is not an accusation — finishing is a real skill — but a player whose returns exceed his underlying numbers is priced on the returns, and the underlying numbers are what continue.

Gakpo has returned 2.45 more than his chances imply. That is not a sell signal on its own — a player who keeps getting into good positions will keep scoring even after the finishing cools — but it does mean the price you are paying reflects the best case rather than the underlying case.

The minutes question

Every name above is only worth anything if he keeps starting. A player creating chances from sixty minutes a week is a different proposition to one doing it from ninety, and the low ownership that makes these players interesting is often low precisely because their place is not secure.

0 of these 8 are playing 80 minutes or more a gameweek. Those are the ones where the gap between chances and returns is a genuine buying opportunity; the rest are watchlist entries whose first requirement is a run in the side.