The Fixture Horizon: who turns green through Gameweek 10
Brentford see their schedule ease sharply over the next six gameweeks while Everton run into a wall. The full matrix, the swings, and where to buy before the turn.
The next six weeks
FPL is played in blocks, not in single weeks. The teams worth buying are rarely the ones with the best fixture on Saturday — they are the ones whose schedule turns over the next month, bought before the turn rather than after it. This is the run from Gameweek 5 to Gameweek 10.
The full six-gameweek matrix
Every team, every fixture, coloured by FPL's own difficulty rating. Home fixtures are marked (H).
| Team | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COV | NFO (A) | NEW (H) | TOT (A) | FUL (H) | SUN (H) | EVE (A) | 2.5 |
| FUL | MUN (H) | IPS (A) | HUL (H) | COV (A) | AVL (A) | NEW (H) | 2.7 |
| NEW | HUL (H) | COV (A) | AVL (H) | CRY (A) | EVE (H) | FUL (A) | 2.7 |
| ARS | BHA (A) | LEE (H) | NFO (A) | EVE (H) | LIV (A) | HUL (H) | 2.8 |
| MCI | SUN (H) | LIV (A) | IPS (H) | AVL (A) | BHA (H) | NFO (A) | 2.8 |
| BOU | LIV (H) | CHE (A) | SUN (H) | MUN (A) | LEE (H) | IPS (A) | 3.0 |
| CRY | LEE (A) | NFO (H) | BHA (A) | NEW (H) | TOT (A) | LIV (H) | 3.0 |
| EVE | IPS (H) | HUL (A) | CHE (H) | ARS (A) | NEW (A) | COV (H) | 3.0 |
| IPS | EVE (A) | FUL (H) | MCI (A) | NFO (H) | HUL (A) | BOU (H) | 3.0 |
| NFO | COV (H) | CRY (A) | ARS (H) | IPS (A) | BRE (A) | MCI (H) | 3.0 |
| SUN | MCI (A) | BHA (H) | BOU (A) | LEE (H) | COV (A) | CHE (H) | 3.0 |
| AVL | TOT (A) | BRE (H) | NEW (A) | MCI (H) | FUL (H) | MUN (A) | 3.2 |
| CHE | BRE (A) | BOU (H) | EVE (A) | TOT (H) | MUN (H) | SUN (A) | 3.2 |
| HUL | NEW (A) | EVE (H) | FUL (A) | BRE (H) | IPS (H) | ARS (A) | 3.2 |
| LIV | BOU (A) | MCI (H) | BRE (A) | BHA (H) | ARS (H) | CRY (A) | 3.2 |
| MUN | FUL (A) | TOT (H) | LEE (A) | BOU (H) | CHE (A) | AVL (H) | 3.2 |
| TOT | AVL (H) | MUN (A) | COV (H) | CHE (A) | CRY (H) | LEE (A) | 3.2 |
| BRE | CHE (H) | AVL (A) | LIV (H) | HUL (A) | NFO (H) | BHA (A) | 3.3 |
| LEE | CRY (H) | ARS (A) | MUN (H) | SUN (A) | BOU (A) | TOT (H) | 3.5 |
| BHA | ARS (H) | SUN (A) | CRY (H) | LIV (A) | MCI (A) | BRE (H) | 3.7 |
Schedules easing
| Team | GW5–7 | GW8–10 | Swing | Home games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 4.0 | 2.7 | −1.3 | 3/6 |
| Leeds | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1 | 3/6 |
| Bournemouth | 3.3 | 2.7 | −0.7 | 3/6 |
| Ipswich Town | 3.3 | 2.7 | −0.7 | 3/6 |
Brentford have the sharpest turn: an average difficulty of 4 across the first block against 2.7 in the second. Their run reads:
The window to buy into a swing like that is while the hard fixtures are still being played, because that is when the price is still low and the ownership has not moved.
Schedules hardening
| Team | GW5–7 | GW8–10 | Swing | Home games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 3/6 |
| Brighton | 3.3 | 4.0 | +0.7 | 3/6 |
| Newcastle | 2.3 | 3.0 | +0.7 | 3/6 |
| Arsenal | 2.7 | 3.0 | +0.3 | 3/6 |
Everton go the other way:
If you hold their assets, the exit window is now rather than in three weeks when the fixtures have turned and everybody is selling at once.
Best and worst runs overall
| Team | Six-week average | Home games | Fixtures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 2.5 | 3/6 | NFO (A), NEW, TOT (A), FUL, SUN, EVE (A) |
| Fulham | 2.7 | 3/6 | MUN, IPS (A), HUL, COV (A), AVL (A), NEW |
| Newcastle | 2.7 | 3/6 | HUL, COV (A), AVL, CRY (A), EVE, FUL (A) |
| Arsenal | 2.8 | 3/6 | BHA (A), LEE, NFO (A), EVE, LIV (A), HUL |
| Man City | 2.8 | 3/6 | SUN, LIV (A), IPS, AVL (A), BHA, NFO (A) |
Coventry City have the kindest overall run at 2.5, with 3 of 6 at home. Brighton have the hardest at 3.7. Home advantage is worth roughly a fifth of a goal in most models, which is small per match and considerable across six.
Schedule density
Every team plays exactly 6 fixtures across this window — no doubles, no blanks. The schedule is even, so the fixture question here is purely about difficulty rather than volume.
Home and away
The same six fixtures are worth materially different amounts depending on where they are played. Home advantage in the Premier League is worth somewhere around a fifth of a goal a game — small in isolation, and the difference between a good run and an ordinary one across a block.
| Team | Home fixtures | Away fixtures | Six-week difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 2.8 |
| Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 3.2 |
| Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 3.0 |
| Brentford | 3 | 3 | 3.3 |
Arsenal play 3 of their 6 fixtures at home in this window. At the other end, Arsenal play only 3, which drags a schedule that looks fine on difficulty alone.
The three sharpest turns
Brentford
Difficulty of 4 across GW5–7 against 2.7 across GW8–10, with 3 of 6 at home.
Leeds
Difficulty of 4 across GW5–7 against 3 across GW8–10, with 3 of 6 at home.
Bournemouth
Difficulty of 3.3 across GW5–7 against 2.7 across GW8–10, with 3 of 6 at home.
Ipswich Town
Difficulty of 3.3 across GW5–7 against 2.7 across GW8–10, with 3 of 6 at home.
What a swing is worth by position
A fixture swing does not pay every position equally, which is why "buy the good fixtures" is incomplete advice.
- Defenders and goalkeepers gain the most. Clean sheets are close to binary and heavily fixture-dependent: a defender facing the weakest attacks in the division is a different asset to the same defender facing the strongest, and the four points arrive all at once.
- Midfielders gain least from easy fixtures and lose least from hard ones. Attacking returns are driven more by the player's own involvement than by the opponent, and the good ones create chances against anybody.
- Forwards sit in between, with one caveat: a poor team's forward in a good run is still a poor team's forward. Fixture swings amplify a team's attacking quality rather than substituting for it.
The practical version is that a defensive asset is worth buying into a swing and selling out of it, while a genuine premium attacker is usually worth holding through a hard run rather than transferring twice.