Under the Hood: the low-owned players creating chances without the returns

Creating without converting

How to read this table

The "waiting on" column is expected involvements minus actual returns. A figure of 1.0 means a player has generated the chances for one more goal or assist than he has produced. It is not a promise that the goal is coming — it is a statement that the chances are being created, which is the part of the process a player controls. Finishing regresses toward the mean over a season; getting into the box does not.

Ownership matters here as much as the gap. A player at 30% ownership whose returns are lagging is a hold, not a buy — you already have him, and so does everybody you are competing with. The same profile at 4% is a genuine edge, because you capture the correction and most of the field does not.

Gonzalo — FUL, £6.1m, 7.2% owned

3.59 expected involvements across 514 minutes, with 1 to show for it. His threat index sits at 152 and creativity at 50.

Bobb — FUL, £5.5m, 0.3% owned

2.21 expected involvements across 421 minutes, with 0 to show for it. His threat index sits at 85 and creativity at 131.

Barry — EVE, £5.7m, 8.8% owned

4.87 expected involvements across 592 minutes, with 3 to show for it. His threat index sits at 288 and creativity at 77, and he has already picked up 2 bonus points.

Rudoni — COV, £4.9m, 0.2% owned

2.86 expected involvements across 379 minutes, with 1 to show for it. His threat index sits at 103 and creativity at 144.

Iwobi — FUL, £5.4m, 0.8% owned

1.83 expected involvements across 497 minutes, with 0 to show for it. His threat index sits at 51 and creativity at 212, and he has already picked up 3 bonus points.

Where the gap is concentrated

The same analysis by position, because the correction is worth different amounts depending on where a player lines up. An unconverted chance is worth six points to a defender and four to a forward, and defenders carry clean-sheet points on top.

Taking more than they create

The mirror image, and the more dangerous group to own. These players have converted above the rate their chances imply. That is not an accusation — finishing is a real skill — but a player whose returns exceed his underlying numbers is priced on the returns, and the underlying numbers are what continue.

Belloumi has returned 3.64 more than his chances imply. That is not a sell signal on its own — a player who keeps getting into good positions will keep scoring even after the finishing cools — but it does mean the price you are paying reflects the best case rather than the underlying case.

The minutes question

Every name above is only worth anything if he keeps starting. A player creating chances from sixty minutes a week is a different proposition to one doing it from ninety, and the low ownership that makes these players interesting is often low precisely because their place is not secure.

1 of these 8 are playing 80 minutes or more a gameweek. Those are the ones where the gap between chances and returns is a genuine buying opportunity; the rest are watchlist entries whose first requirement is a run in the side.